Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse, analysts say as panic spreads

Deutsche Bank shares slid Friday whereas the price of insuring in opposition to its default spiked, because the German lender was engulfed by market panic concerning the stability of the European banking sector.

However, many analysts had been left scratching their heads as to why the financial institution, which has posted 10 consecutive quarters of revenue and boasts robust capital and solvency positions, had turn into the following goal of a market seemingly in “seek and destroy” mode.

The emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, within the wake of the collapse of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank, has triggered contagion concern amongst traders, which was deepened by additional financial coverage tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Central banks and regulators had hoped that the Credit Suisse rescue deal, brokered by Swiss authorities, would assist calm investor jitters concerning the stability of Europe’s banks.

But the autumn of the 167-year-old Swiss establishment, and the upending of creditor hierarchy guidelines to wipe out 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.4 billion) of Credit Suisse’s additional tier-one (AT1) bonds, left the market unconvinced that the deal can be ample to comprise the stresses within the sector.

Deutsche Bank underwent a multibillion euro restructure lately aimed toward decreasing prices and bettering profitability. The lender recorded annual net income of 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) in 2022, up 159% from the earlier yr.

Its CET1 ratio — a measure of financial institution solvency — got here in at 13.4% on the finish of 2022, whereas its liquidity protection ratio was 142% and its internet secure funding ratio stood at 119%. These figures wouldn’t point out that there’s any trigger for concern concerning the financial institution’s solvency or liquidity place.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed a information convention in Brussels Friday that Deutsche Bank had “thoroughly reorganized and modernized its business model and is a very profitable bank,” including that there isn’t any foundation to take a position about its future.

‘Just not very scary’

Some of the issues round Deutsche Bank have centered on its U.S. industrial actual property exposures and substantial derivatives e-book.

However, analysis agency Autonomous, a subsidiary of AllianceBernstein, on Friday dismissed these issues as each “well known” and “just not very scary,” pointing to the financial institution’s “robust capital and liquidity positions.”

“Our Underperform rating on the stock is simply driven by our view that there are more attractive equity stories elsewhere in the sector (i.e. relative value),” Autonomous strategists Stuart Graham and Leona Li stated in a analysis word.

“We have no concerns about Deutsche’s viability or asset marks. To be crystal clear – Deutsche is NOT the next Credit Suisse.”

Unlike the stricken Swiss lender, they highlighted that Deutsche is “solidly profitable,” and Autonomous forecasts a return on tangible e-book worth of seven.1% for 2023, rising to eight.5% by 2025.

‘Fresh and intense focus’ on liquidity

Credit Suisse’s collapse boiled right down to a mix of three causes, in response to JPMorgan. These had been a “string of governance failures that had eroded confidence in management’s abilities,” a difficult market backdrop that hampered the financial institution’s restructuring plan, and the market’s “fresh and intense focus on liquidity risk” within the wake of the SVB collapse.

While the latter proved to be the ultimate set off, the Wall Street financial institution argued that the significance of the surroundings during which Credit Suisse was making an attempt to overtake its enterprise mannequin couldn’t be understated, as illustrated by a comparability with Deutsche.

“The German bank had its own share of headline pressure and governance fumbles, and in our view had a far lower quality franchise to begin with, which while significantly less levered today, still commands a relatively elevated cost base and has relied on its FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) trading franchise for organic capital generation and credit re-rating,” JPMorgan strategists stated in a word Friday.

“By comparison, although Credit Suisse clearly has shared the struggles of running a cost and capital intensive IB [investment bank], for the longest time it still had up its sleeve both a high-quality Asset and Wealth Management franchise, and a profitable Swiss Bank; all of which was well capitalised from both a RWA [risk-weighted asset] and Leverage exposure standpoint.”

They added that regardless of the high quality of the franchise, the occasions of current months had confirmed that such establishments “rely entirely on trust.”

“Where Deutsche’s governance fumbles could not incrementally ‘cost’ the bank anything in franchise loss, Credit Suisse’s were immediately punished with investor outflows in the Wealth Management division, causing what should have been seen as the bank’s ‘crown jewel’ to themselves deepen the bank’s P&L losses,” they famous.

At the time of SVB’s collapse, Credit Suisse was already within the highlight over its liquidity place and had suffered huge outflows within the fourth quarter of 2022 that had but to reverse.

JPMorgan was unable to find out whether or not the unprecedented depositor outflows suffered by the Swiss financial institution had been amassed by themselves in mild of SVB’s failure, or had been pushed by a concern of these outflows and “lack of conviction in management’s assurances.”

“Indeed, if there is anything depositors might learn from the past few weeks, both in the U.S. and Europe, it is just how far regulators will always go to ensure depositors are protected,” the word stated.

“Be that as it may, the lesson for investors (and indeed issuers) here is clear – ultimately, confidence is key, whether derived from the market backdrop as a whole (again recalling Deutsche Bank’s more successful re-rating), or from management’s ability to provide more transparency to otherwise opaque liquidity measures.”

—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.